Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Operations

Abstract：The US,and Russia have all recognized the revolutionary promise of artificial intelligence (AI). It is likely, as each seeks areas of advantage through AI, that they will explore nuclear applications of AI. Consequently, the US State Department’s Bureau of Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance (AVC) asked CNA to conduct research and analysis that would sharpen its understanding of how AI could affect nuclear risks and how AVC could reduce those risks and capture security-enhancing benefits. This report characterizes how all three competitors are using AI in nuclear operations; how they might do so in the future; and how their uses of AI could increase, decrease, or otherwise affect nuclear risks. It also recommends ways the US government might mitigate the risks of AI-enabled nuclear operations and capturing possible risk-reducing benefits.